This weekend we’ve got a 13-fight card after that extended 3-week break. I am excited to have UFC back and that I am prepared to win some money on Saturday. The card will occur in Lincoln, Nebraska and there are no fighters making their UFC introduction so it’s always nice once you’re already acquainted with all the fighters on the card. Since this is a Fight Night card, the DraftKings contests aren’t the greatest, but there’s still a lot of money to be won. I’ll be chasing the large $15k top prize at the $8 GPP in addition to the $5 & $10 Qualifiers. The majority of my investment will be in money games, largely H2Hs, but I will be taking multiple shots at those huge prizes. Here are a few plays I like this week in Addition to my fade of this week:
Money Game play of the week — Stack (James Vick $8,600 AND Justin Gaethje $7,600)
This is how I will be starting my money lineup. I will put in Vick and Gaethje then figure the rest out from there. Any battle Gaethje is in is full of activity and his three UFC battles have been Fight Of The Year kind conflicts. Those types of fights are fantastic for DraftKings. Notably cash games since we can lock in a win and get all the points in the very best battle on the card. Usually 4 wins will get the job done in cash games and we will get over 100 points with this fight. But with that win locked in, we just need to find 3 other people we feel good about.
GPP drama of this week — Bryan Barberena ($9,500)
It’s tough to want to pay $9.5k to get a man like Barberena if you can just pay an extra $200 to find a -1000 preferred in Anders. But, I believe that’s what most people will do and that is what makes Barberena a good GPP play. I believe we will get him in a somewhat lower ownership due to his massive salary, and he’s got a very good chance at getting a 1st round triumph. If he can get a 1st round KO then he will have 100 points so he will pay off that high salary. If you think Ellenberger is completely faded, I think you should find some Barberena in your lineups. His ITD lineup is -170 and Ellenberger looks like he is a shell of his old self. I believe Barberena does pick up a finish in this struggle so that I will throw him some GPPs and expect he is beneath possessed.
Underdog drama of this week — Andre Fili ($7,500)
This is merely the effortless worth play of the week. Presently, Fili is your gambling popular at -115 over Michael Johnson in +105. But, MJ is $8.7k on DraftKings and Fili is just $7.5k. I really like taking that value when it is available so that I think he is in play in most formats. He will be popular in tournaments together with the value we’re becoming on himbut I am willing to eat that chalk and I don’t want to get burned by completely fading that value. I really do think this is the toughest fight on the card to call, but if Fili keeps with his wrestling I think he will have a good chance at winning this fight. If the fight stays standing for 15-minutes, I’d prefer MJ although not by a good deal. At $7.5k we do not require a massive score from Fili so any win will probably do just fine. I am not going to pass on this value and I think he is the simple underdog of this week on DK.
Fade of this week — Drew Dober ($8,900)
This could just be my personal prejudice but I will not possess Drew Dober in some of my main ~20 GPP lineups. Nor will I have him in my cash lineup. Dober has only went for takedowns in 1 of his UFC fights so he is mainly just seeking to attack. I think that this is going to be a striking battle as well and I think that it will be nearer than the odds indicate. At $8.9k I believe we will need a finish from him to wind up on the winning GPP lineup and I don’t see that happening. Should you think Dober can find a KO, then you ought to be enjoying him. I’ll just be paying up someplace since I am not sure he can get that complete and I would not be shocked if he even lost the struggle. I will say I never seem to utilize Dober in DraftKings, therefore I could get burnt again but I will stick with my Dober fade and he will be my fade of the week to get UFC Lincoln.
If you’d like my full-card DraftKings breakdown with investigation on each struggle, my private strategies & recommendations, and my pick outlook for every fight then you can discover that beneath the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker if you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
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