There is a lot of cash to be won this week on DraftKings including a top prize of $30k from the main tournament. I will be going thicker than normal this week chasing the significant GPP prizes, and I will play less money games than normal. This is actually the first time we’ve observed a $30k top prize, therefore I believe it is well worth chasing in the event that you’ve got the bankroll to get it.
We did lose the co-main occasion with Max Holloway pulling out of this fight against Brian Ortega, so we’re now down to 11 battles and we should observe a lot of ties with this card with the popular lineups. If you’re pursuing that $30K then you will want to try and be a bit different with your lineup so you can distinguish yourself from the remainder of the field. That said, let’s get to a few plays I like as well as my fade of the week.
Cash Game play of this week — Paul Felder ($7,400)
The DK pricing with this fight is far off from the betting line. On DK, Felder is 1,400 less than his competitor, Mike Perry. On the betting line, Felder is your -150 favorite. That’s just too much line value to pass on in cash games and that makes Felder the”free square” this week. Even when he loses this battle, he must be so highly owned that it won’t even hurt your lineup in cash games. In GPP’s, Felder will be among the highest owned fighters on the card and if he loses there then it may kill your lineup, so perhaps consider preventing the chalk there in the event that you can. However, with that crazy line value we are getting here, Paul Felder is the easy choice for the money game play of the week.
GPP play of the week — Mike Perry ($8,800)
Ok, I know this seems a bit weird since I just picked Paul Felder as my cash play of this week, but hear me out. In cash games, we don’t care about possession. In case Felder is 90% owned in cash games, then it will not hurt your lineup since only 10% of lineups didn’t have him and you merely have to be top ~50 percent of the area to money in money games. In GPPs, I’m guessing Felder will be over 50% possessed. When he loses, that is half of the area that is dead without a shot at winning 1st place.
Mike Perry on the other hand will be less than 20% owned, and maybe closer to 10% just due to the mispriced line. If Felder kills and loses off 50 percent of lineups, then you get a triumph with the low owned man to put you at a far better location of a Royal 1st place win and maybe hitting $30k. Perry has the power to KO anybody and Paul Felder is carrying this fight on short notice in a weight class above his branch. Can it shock you much if Perry could KO him in this fight? In GPPs, we’re looking for that boom or bust drama and that is Mike Perry this week making him my GPP play of this week.
Underdog drama of this week — Anthony Pettis ($7,600)
Anthony Pettis could have been a -500 favorite over Michael Chiesa if this struggle happened 5 years before, but now we get a evaporating Pettis as an underdog and $1,000 cheaper than Chiesa on DraftKings. I think Pettis can keep this fight standing for most the struggle which will give him a big edge. He’s also dangerous on the ground himself and when he’s taken I believe he is going to have the ability to get up if he is not able to get a submission of his very own. If Pettis can acquire a determination then I think he will pay off his DK price tag and will be a fantastic underdog to utilize so you can save salary in your lineups. I may even find this fight ending early from Pettis dropping Chiesa using a body kick and if this happens he will likely be on the winning lineup if he can make it happen in around 1.
Fade of this week — Rafael Assuncao ($9,100)
At $9.1k, I have zero interest in Assuncao this weekend. I really do think he wins the fight, but I don’t find him paying off that large price . He does not fight at a heavy pace and he hasn’t gotten a takedown in his last 4 wins as well as the floor is where he will have his biggest advantage in this matchup. In those last 4 wins, Assuncao hasn’t scored over 78 DK points and at his wages this week I need at least 91 points out of him to pay that much. I’d rather cover the men higher priced than Assuncao, or even go down to Vannata or even Miocic. I’ll have 20 lineups this weekend and Assuncao will probably be in 0 of them, which makes him my fade of the week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight about the card and give my full DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, then you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
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